Availability of river water in the country’s coastal area, now at 41 percent, could drop to 17 percent by 2050 due to climate change and human activities, researchers have said. This is a great threat to the Sundarbans, said speakers at a programme titled Vulnerability of Sundarbans in a changing climate. The programme was organised at Ramkrishna Mission Auditorium in Kolkata for understanding the physical and economic effects of climate change on the Sundarbans. Rising salinity in soil and water would change not only the vegetation pattern of the Sundarbans but also reduce the availability of economically important fish. It would be a threat to the livelihoods of people living around the mangrove forest. At least 17 research papers were presented at the programme on Friday and Saturday. Environmental economist Susmita Dasgupta in her presentation said that the river water area could get as low as 17.1 percent by 2050. World Fish, Bangladesh, conducted a study on five commercially important fish, including Parshey, Dateyna, Vetki, Tengra and Poa, and found that if 47,000 to 89,000 fish were available in low-saline water, the number dropped to 15,000 to 29,000 in high-saline water. This suggested that the number of fish would reduce if salinity increased, said Golam Mustafa of World Fish, presenting the research. Researchers there said the availability of slightly saline river water for irrigation would decrease to 11 percent by 2050, which is now around 30 percent. River water in Barguna, Bhola, Jhalakathi, Khulna, and Patuakhali would not be useable for irrigation. And the Bhola irrigation project would be abandoned as the water of the Tentulia would cross the salinity threshold, according to the presentation on salinity in the costal zone. Almost 98 percent river water in Khulna and 97 percent river water in Bhola would exceed the salinity level. Barisal, Pirojpur, and Bagerhat would face the worst crisis of freshwater. Freshwater zone would reduce by 85, 81, and 71 percent respectively in these three districts, the experts said. Prabhat Kumar Mishra, secretary of the Department of Fisheries of West Bengal, and Debal Ray, chief conservator of forest, Department of Forests, West Bengal, and Lia Carol Sieghart, environment programme leader, World Bank, also spoke in the inauguration programme while Prof Emeritus Ainun Nishat summed up the discussion. Experts said the Sundarbans is of international importance and its conservation is mandated by international conventions and treaties. They said climate change, in addition to other natural and human factors, would have significant implications for the present and future management of the Sundarbans.
2017 / thedailystar.net