Ernesto has prompted hurricane watches in parts of the northeast Caribbean, including the Virgin Islands, where it’s expected to intensify as it spreads heavy rain, strong winds and some coastal flooding through Wednesday.
Ernesto is centered near the Leeward Islands and is moving quickly west-northwest. Bands of soaking rain packing gusty winds are spreading through the islands.
Tropical storm warnings stretch from parts of the Leeward Islands into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. That means tropical storm conditions (sustained winds 39 mph to 73 mph) are expected in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through overnight.
In addition, hurricane watches have been hoisted for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands as well as Culebra and Vieques. That means hurricane conditions are possible in the next 12 hours if Ernesto intensifies into a Category 1 hurricane.
Ernesto will spread westward from the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through early Wednesday while intensifying. It’s likely to become a Category 1 hurricane before departing the Caribbean.
Locally heavy rain and strong winds can be expected in the Leeward islands, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Stronger wind gusts might cause some scattered power outages.
According to the NHC, parts of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico could pick up 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local amounts up to 10 inches during Ernesto. The heavy rain could trigger flooding and mudslides.
Some bands of heavy rain may linger in these areas even after the center of Ernesto has moved north of the area into Wednesday.
Ernesto is expected to make a northward turn sometime Wednesday after leaving Puerto Rico.
This northward turn will occur soon enough to keep it away from the U.S. East Coast.
Ernesto is forecast to be an intensifying hurricane as it tracks farther north. Where exactly it takes that turn could be crucial for any potential impact in Bermuda Friday night or Saturday.
Beyond that, it’s not clear if Ernesto will turn sharply enough toward the east or east-northeast to keep it away from Atlantic Canada early next week.
All interests from the Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands should prepare for strong winds and heavy rain.
Bermuda and Atlantic Canada should monitor this forecast in the coming days.
While Ernesto is not a mainland U.S. threat, it is likely to generate large swells that would reach the East Coast late this week into this weekend.